Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 26, 2024
Georgia 2–0 Portugal: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Portugal 2–0, but the replays call it even: Georgia win 4 of 10, Portugal 4, 2 end level. Portugal made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Georgia lucky · −52 Portugal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia win 4, 2 end level, Portugal win 4.
- 1 GEO 2 POR 1
- 2 GEO 2 POR 1
- 3 GEO 3 POR 1
- 4 GEO 3 POR 0
- 5 GEO 0 POR 0
- 6 GEO 0 POR 0
- 7 GEO 1 POR 4
- 8 GEO 0 POR 2
- 9 GEO 0 POR 1
- 10 GEO 0 POR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Georgia win 37%, 22% end level, Portugal win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 3+ | 8.3% |
| Georgia by 2 | 10.2% |
| Georgia by 1 | 18.6% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Portugal by 1 | 19.4% |
| Portugal by 2 | 12.3% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 9.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Georgia | 7 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.35 | +0.65 |
 Portugal | 22 | 0 | 2.36 | −2.36 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 56' | Georges Mikautadze scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 92' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.70 |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +20% GEO |
| 2 | 20' | António João Pereira Albuquerque Tavares Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% GEO |
| 3 | 27' | Francisco Fernandes Conceição didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GEO |
| 4 | 34' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% GEO |
| 5 | 46' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% GEO |
| 6 | 46' | Danilo Luís Hélio Pereira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% GEO |
| 7 | 49' | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% POR |
| 8 | 56' | Georges Mikautadze scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% GEO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 37% · draw 26% · Portugal 36%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Portugal by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 37% · draw 22% · Portugal 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Georgia win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 3, 2024
- Switzerland 1–1 Germany Jun 23, 2024 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Scotland 0–1 Hungary Jun 23, 2024 · replay 73% for Hungary
- Croatia 1–1 Italy Jun 24, 2024 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Albania 0–1 Spain Jun 24, 2024 · replay 70% for Spain
- England 0–0 Slovenia Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- France 1–1 Poland Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Netherlands 2–3 Austria Jun 25, 2024 · replay 49% for Austria
- Denmark 0–0 Serbia Jun 25, 2024 · drawn; replay 47% draws
- Ukraine 0–0 Belgium Jun 26, 2024 · drawn; replay 38% draws
- Czech Republic 1–2 Turkey Jun 26, 2024 · replay 47% for Turkey
- Slovakia 1–1 Romania Jun 26, 2024 · drawn; replay 31% draws