luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 23, 2024

Switzerland 1–1 Germany: who deserved to win?

Switzerland and Germany drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Switzerland win 1 of 10, Germany 6, and 3 end level. Germany made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Switzerland 1 0.28
Germany 1 1.54

June 23, 2024 · Deutsche Bank Park · Referee: Daniele Orsato

Luck index +26 Switzerland lucky for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Switzerland win 1, 3 end level, Germany win 6.

  1. 1 SUI 1 GER 0
  2. 2 SUI 0 GER 0
  3. 3 SUI 0 GER 0
  4. 4 SUI 1 GER 1
  5. 5 SUI 0 GER 3
  6. 6 SUI 0 GER 2
  7. 7 SUI 0 GER 2
  8. 8 SUI 0 GER 1
  9. 9 SUI 1 GER 2
  10. 10 SUI 1 GER 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Switzerland win 10%, 29% end level, Germany win 62%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Switzerland by 3+0.2%
Switzerland by 21.2%
Switzerland by 18.2%
Draw28.7%
Germany by 130.6%
Germany by 219.1%
Germany by 3+12.1%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Switzerland410.28+0.72
Germany1811.54−0.54

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
27'Dan Ndoye scored from a shot0.18
91'Niclas Füllkrug scored from a shot0.16

When it happened

Switzerland’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Switzerland was ahead in it, below while Germany was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 27' Dan Ndoye scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +22% SUI
2 40' Antonio Rüdiger didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% SUI
3 49' Jamal Musiala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% SUI
4 49' İlkay Gündoğan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +4% SUI
5 67' Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance +9% SUI
6 69' Joshua Kimmich didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +4% SUI
7 84' Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +8% SUI
8 91' Niclas Füllkrug scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +42% GER

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Switzerland 7% · draw 23% · Germany 70%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.9 for Switzerland
Luck-adjusted margin
Germany by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Switzerland 10% · draw 29% · Germany 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

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