luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 3 · Euro 2024 · June 26, 2024

Ukraine 0–0 Belgium: who deserved to win?

Ukraine and Belgium drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Ukraine win 3 of 10, Belgium 3, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.6).

Full time

GoalsxG
Ukraine 0 0.71
Belgium 0 0.63

June 26, 2024 · MHPArena · Referee: Anthony Taylor

Luck index −2 Ukraine about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ukraine win 3, 4 end level, Belgium win 3.

  1. 1 UKR 2 BEL 1
  2. 2 UKR 1 BEL 0
  3. 3 UKR 2 BEL 0
  4. 4 UKR 1 BEL 1
  5. 5 UKR 1 BEL 1
  6. 6 UKR 0 BEL 0
  7. 7 UKR 0 BEL 0
  8. 8 UKR 0 BEL 2
  9. 9 UKR 1 BEL 2
  10. 10 UKR 1 BEL 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Ukraine win 32%, 38% end level, Belgium win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Ukraine by 3+2.1%
Ukraine by 28.3%
Ukraine by 122.0%
Draw38.1%
Belgium by 120.7%
Belgium by 27.0%
Belgium by 3+1.8%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ukraine1400.71−0.71
Belgium1200.63−0.63

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Ukraine’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Ukraine was ahead in it, below while Belgium was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 6' Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance +7% UKR
2 28' Roman Yaremchuk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% BEL
3 72' Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% UKR
4 74' Artem Dovbyk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% BEL
5 82' Taras Stepanenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% BEL
6 86' Johan Bakayoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% UKR
7 87' Ruslan Malinovskiy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% BEL
8 90' Georgiy Sudakov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +9% BEL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ukraine 34% · draw 38% · Belgium 29%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.1 for Belgium
Luck-adjusted margin
Ukraine by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Ukraine 32% · draw 38% · Belgium 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 3 matches, 2024 · Ukraine · Belgium

More from matchday 3, 2024

Every match of matchday 3, 2024