Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 22, 2015
Atlético 2–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Getafe 2–0, and the replays lean Atlético’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Getafe, 3 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1.09 |
 Getafe | 0 | 0.48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Atlético lucky · −26 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 6, 3 end level, Getafe win 1.
- 1 ATM 1 GET 0
- 2 ATM 1 GET 0
- 3 ATM 2 GET 1
- 4 ATM 2 GET 0
- 5 ATM 3 GET 1
- 6 ATM 3 GET 0
- 7 ATM 1 GET 1
- 8 ATM 1 GET 1
- 9 ATM 0 GET 0
- 10 ATM 1 GET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 60%, 28% end level, Getafe win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 12.0% |
| Atlético by 2 | 18.9% |
| Atlético by 1 | 29.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
| Getafe by 1 | 9.9% |
| Getafe by 2 | 2.1% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 11 | 2 | 1.09 | +0.91 |
 Getafe | 6 | 0 | 0.48 | −0.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 61' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 89' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.66 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +20% ATM |
| 2 | 13' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% GET |
| 3 | 28' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% ATM |
| 4 | 41' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ATM |
| 5 | 59' | Álvaro Medrán Just didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ATM |
| 6 | 61' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +11% ATM |
| 7 | 73' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% GET |
| 8 | 88' | Wanderson Maciel Sousa Campos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 84% · draw 12% · Getafe 4%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 60% · draw 28% · Getafe 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Granada 0–3 Real Sociedad Sep 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Sociedad
- Espanyol 1–0 Valencia Sep 22, 2015 · replay 80% for Espanyol
- Levante 2–2 Eibar Sep 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Las Palmas 2–0 Sevilla Sep 23, 2015 · replay 46% for Las Palmas
- Rayo 2–1 Sporting Sep 23, 2015 · replay 95% for Rayo
- Athletic 1–2 Real Madrid Sep 23, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 0–1 Villarreal Sep 23, 2015 · replay 57% for Villarreal
- Celta 4–1 Barcelona Sep 23, 2015 · replay 76% for Celta
- Betis 1–2 Deportivo Sep 24, 2015 · replay 29% for Deportivo