Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 24, 2015
Betis 1–2 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Betis 2–1, but the replays lean toward Betis: 5 wins in 10 to Deportivo’s 2, 3 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.09 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 0.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +71 Deportivo very lucky · −71 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 5, 3 end level, Deportivo win 2.
- 1 BET 1 DEP 0
- 2 BET 1 DEP 0
- 3 BET 1 DEP 0
- 4 BET 2 DEP 0
- 5 BET 3 DEP 0
- 6 BET 0 DEP 0
- 7 BET 0 DEP 0
- 8 BET 0 DEP 0
- 9 BET 0 DEP 1
- 10 BET 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 54%, 34% end level, Deportivo win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 6.6% |
| Betis by 2 | 15.5% |
| Betis by 1 | 31.4% |
| Draw | 34.4% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 10.0% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 1.7% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 9 | 1 | 1.09 | −0.09 |
 Deportivo | 9 | 2 | 0.33 | +1.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
| 53' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 58' | Petros Matheus dos Santos Araújo scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 71' | Fayçal Fajr scored from a shot | 0.14 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +13% DEP |
| 2 | 41' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% BET |
| 3 | 50' | Pedro Mosquera Parada didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BET |
| 4 | 53' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +34% DEP |
| 5 | 58' | Petros Matheus dos Santos Araújo scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +28% BET |
| 6 | 71' | The game turned hereFayçal Fajr scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +35% DEP |
| 7 | 73' | Petros Matheus dos Santos Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% DEP |
| 8 | 76' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 59% · draw 29% · Deportivo 11%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 54% · draw 34% · Deportivo 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 29% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Atlético 2–0 Getafe Sep 22, 2015 · replay 74% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Real Sociedad Sep 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Sociedad
- Espanyol 1–0 Valencia Sep 22, 2015 · replay 80% for Espanyol
- Levante 2–2 Eibar Sep 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Las Palmas 2–0 Sevilla Sep 23, 2015 · replay 46% for Las Palmas
- Rayo 2–1 Sporting Sep 23, 2015 · replay 95% for Rayo
- Athletic 1–2 Real Madrid Sep 23, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 0–1 Villarreal Sep 23, 2015 · replay 57% for Villarreal
- Celta 4–1 Barcelona Sep 23, 2015 · replay 76% for Celta