Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 23, 2015
Málaga 0–1 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Málaga 1–0, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Málaga, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.9). An own goal helped Villarreal.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 0 | 0.84 |
 Villarreal | 1 | 0.91 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Villarreal lucky · −43 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 3, 3 end level, Villarreal win 4.
- 1 MAL 1 VIL 0
- 2 MAL 1 VIL 0
- 3 MAL 2 VIL 0
- 4 MAL 0 VIL 0
- 5 MAL 1 VIL 1
- 6 MAL 1 VIL 1
- 7 MAL 0 VIL 2
- 8 MAL 0 VIL 2
- 9 MAL 0 VIL 1
- 10 MAL 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 27%, 33% end level, Villarreal win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Málaga by 2 | 6.6% |
| Málaga by 1 | 18.4% |
| Draw | 32.8% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 24.8% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 11.1% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 15 | 0 | 0.84 | −0.84 |
 Villarreal | 9 | 0 | 0.91 | −0.91 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Matías Nahuel Leiva Esquivel didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31' | Matías Nahuel Leiva Esquivel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +11% MAL |
| 2 | 35' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% VIL |
| 3 | 57' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% MAL |
| 4 | 58' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% MAL |
| 5 | 70' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for VillarrealOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +38% VIL |
| 6 | 71' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% VIL |
| 7 | 83' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% VIL |
| 8 | 83' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 31% · draw 33% · Villarreal 37%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 27% · draw 33% · Villarreal 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Atlético 2–0 Getafe Sep 22, 2015 · replay 74% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Real Sociedad Sep 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Sociedad
- Espanyol 1–0 Valencia Sep 22, 2015 · replay 80% for Espanyol
- Levante 2–2 Eibar Sep 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Las Palmas 2–0 Sevilla Sep 23, 2015 · replay 46% for Las Palmas
- Rayo 2–1 Sporting Sep 23, 2015 · replay 95% for Rayo
- Athletic 1–2 Real Madrid Sep 23, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Celta 4–1 Barcelona Sep 23, 2015 · replay 76% for Celta
- Betis 1–2 Deportivo Sep 24, 2015 · replay 29% for Deportivo