Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 23, 2015
Levante 2–2 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Levante and Eibar drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Levante win 2 of 10, Eibar 5, and 3 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 2 | 0.74 |
 Eibar | 2 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Levante about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 2, 3 end level, Eibar win 5.
- 1 LEV 2 EIB 1
- 2 LEV 2 EIB 1
- 3 LEV 0 EIB 0
- 4 LEV 1 EIB 1
- 5 LEV 0 EIB 0
- 6 LEV 0 EIB 3
- 7 LEV 0 EIB 2
- 8 LEV 0 EIB 1
- 9 LEV 0 EIB 1
- 10 LEV 0 EIB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 21%, 32% end level, Eibar win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 4.2% |
| Levante by 1 | 15.8% |
| Draw | 32.1% |
| Eibar by 1 | 25.6% |
| Eibar by 2 | 14.0% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 7.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 12 | 2 | 0.74 | +1.26 |
 Eibar | 10 | 2 | 0.99 | +1.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 47' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 51' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 92' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% EIB |
| 2 | 9' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +15% EIB |
| 3 | 20' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% LEV |
| 4 | 29' | Nabil Ghilas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% EIB |
| 5 | 47' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +15% EIB |
| 6 | 51' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +14% LEV |
| 7 | 89' | José María Martín-Bejarano Serrano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +6% EIB |
| 8 | 92' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +46% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 25% · draw 32% · Eibar 43%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 21% · draw 32% · Eibar 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · Levante · Eibar
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