Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 23, 2015
Rayo 2–1 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Sporting 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Rayo win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 3.22 |
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 0.55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Rayo about even · −5 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 9, 1 ends level, Sporting win 0.
- 1 RAY 3 SPO 2
- 2 RAY 2 SPO 0
- 3 RAY 3 SPO 1
- 4 RAY 3 SPO 0
- 5 RAY 3 SPO 0
- 6 RAY 4 SPO 0
- 7 RAY 4 SPO 0
- 8 RAY 5 SPO 0
- 9 RAY 7 SPO 0
- 10 RAY 0 SPO 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 92%, 6% end level, Sporting win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 62.2% |
| Rayo by 2 | 17.9% |
| Rayo by 1 | 12.4% |
| Draw | 5.7% |
| Sporting by 1 | 1.5% |
| Sporting by 2 | 0.3% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 18 (1 pen) | 2 | 3.22 | −1.22 |
 Sporting | 6 | 1 | 0.55 | +0.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 39' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 47' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.69 |
| 48' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 70' | José Raúl Baena Urdiales didn’t score from a shot | 0.68 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +4% SPO |
| 2 | 37' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SPO |
| 3 | 39' | Roberto Trashorras Gayoso scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% RAY |
| 4 | 47' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% SPO |
| 5 | 47' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 69% chance | +4% RAY |
| 6 | 48' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +7% SPO |
| 7 | 70' | José Raúl Baena Urdiales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 68% chance | +5% SPO |
| 8 | 83' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 94% · draw 5% · Sporting 1%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 92% · draw 6% · Sporting 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · Rayo · Sporting
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
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