Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 23, 2015
Athletic 1–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Athletic 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 1 | 1.48 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 2.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Real Madrid about even · −22 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 1, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 7.
- 1 ATH 2 RMA 1
- 2 ATH 1 RMA 1
- 3 ATH 0 RMA 0
- 4 ATH 0 RMA 5
- 5 ATH 0 RMA 4
- 6 ATH 1 RMA 4
- 7 ATH 1 RMA 3
- 8 ATH 0 RMA 2
- 9 ATH 1 RMA 2
- 10 ATH 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 14%, 17% end level, Real Madrid win 70%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Athletic by 2 | 3.1% |
| Athletic by 1 | 8.7% |
| Draw | 16.7% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 19.4% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.6% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 30.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 13 | 1 | 1.48 | −0.48 |
 Real Madrid | 22 | 2 | 2.63 | −0.63 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.64 |
| 66' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 69' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.66 |
| 78' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +10% RMA |
| 2 | 28' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% RMA |
| 3 | 30' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% RMA |
| 4 | 40' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% RMA |
| 5 | 41' | Mateo Kovačić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +4% ATH |
| 6 | 66' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +32% ATH |
| 7 | 69' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +14% RMA |
| 8 | 78' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +17% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 16% · draw 19% · Real Madrid 65%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 14% · draw 17% · Real Madrid 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Atlético 2–0 Getafe Sep 22, 2015 · replay 74% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Real Sociedad Sep 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Sociedad
- Espanyol 1–0 Valencia Sep 22, 2015 · replay 80% for Espanyol
- Levante 2–2 Eibar Sep 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Las Palmas 2–0 Sevilla Sep 23, 2015 · replay 46% for Las Palmas
- Rayo 2–1 Sporting Sep 23, 2015 · replay 95% for Rayo
- Málaga 0–1 Villarreal Sep 23, 2015 · replay 57% for Villarreal
- Celta 4–1 Barcelona Sep 23, 2015 · replay 76% for Celta
- Betis 1–2 Deportivo Sep 24, 2015 · replay 29% for Deportivo