Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 23, 2015
Celta 4–1 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Barcelona 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 7 of 10, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (2.1 expected goals to 1.9).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 4 | 2.11 |
 Barcelona | 1 | 1.94 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Celta about even · −24 Barcelona
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 7, 2 end level, Barcelona win 1.
- 1 CEL 2 BAR 1
- 2 CEL 3 BAR 2
- 3 CEL 4 BAR 2
- 4 CEL 3 BAR 1
- 5 CEL 3 BAR 0
- 6 CEL 4 BAR 0
- 7 CEL 7 BAR 2
- 8 CEL 2 BAR 2
- 9 CEL 2 BAR 2
- 10 CEL 3 BAR 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 69%, 15% end level, Barcelona win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 31.1% |
| Celta by 2 | 19.4% |
| Celta by 1 | 18.4% |
| Draw | 15.3% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 9.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 4.3% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 19 | 4 | 2.11 | +1.89 |
 Barcelona | 18 | 1 | 1.94 | −0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 29' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 55' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 79' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 82' | John Guidetti scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BAR |
| 2 | 10' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CEL |
| 3 | 14' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% CEL |
| 4 | 21' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 5 | 25' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +25% CEL |
| 6 | 29' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +8% CEL |
| 7 | 52' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% CEL |
| 8 | 55' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +1% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 65% · draw 18% · Barcelona 17%
- Final margin
- Celta by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 69% · draw 15% · Barcelona 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Atlético 2–0 Getafe Sep 22, 2015 · replay 74% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Real Sociedad Sep 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Sociedad
- Espanyol 1–0 Valencia Sep 22, 2015 · replay 80% for Espanyol
- Levante 2–2 Eibar Sep 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Las Palmas 2–0 Sevilla Sep 23, 2015 · replay 46% for Las Palmas
- Rayo 2–1 Sporting Sep 23, 2015 · replay 95% for Rayo
- Athletic 1–2 Real Madrid Sep 23, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 0–1 Villarreal Sep 23, 2015 · replay 57% for Villarreal
- Betis 1–2 Deportivo Sep 24, 2015 · replay 29% for Deportivo