Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 22, 2015
Espanyol 1–0 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Valencia 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Espanyol about even · −20 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 7, 2 end level, Valencia win 1.
- 1 ESP 3 VAL 2
- 2 ESP 2 VAL 1
- 3 ESP 2 VAL 0
- 4 ESP 2 VAL 0
- 5 ESP 3 VAL 0
- 6 ESP 4 VAL 1
- 7 ESP 4 VAL 0
- 8 ESP 1 VAL 1
- 9 ESP 1 VAL 1
- 10 ESP 0 VAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 70%, 19% end level, Valencia win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 23.4% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 21.7% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 25.3% |
| Draw | 18.9% |
| Valencia by 1 | 7.8% |
| Valencia by 2 | 2.4% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 19 | 1 | 1.75 | −0.75 |
 Valencia | 10 | 0 | 0.65 | −0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 17' | Víctor Guillermo Álvarez Delgado scored from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% VAL |
| 2 | 15' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +9% ESP |
| 3 | 17' | Víctor Guillermo Álvarez Delgado scored from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +11% ESP |
| 4 | 41' | João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ESP |
| 5 | 43' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +3% VAL |
| 6 | 47' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ESP |
| 7 | 66' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ESP |
| 8 | 90' | Aymen Abdennour didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 68% · draw 21% · Valencia 11%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 70% · draw 19% · Valencia 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 5, 2015-16
- Atlético 2–0 Getafe Sep 22, 2015 · replay 74% for Atlético
- Granada 0–3 Real Sociedad Sep 22, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Sociedad
- Levante 2–2 Eibar Sep 23, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Las Palmas 2–0 Sevilla Sep 23, 2015 · replay 46% for Las Palmas
- Rayo 2–1 Sporting Sep 23, 2015 · replay 95% for Rayo
- Athletic 1–2 Real Madrid Sep 23, 2015 · replay 78% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 0–1 Villarreal Sep 23, 2015 · replay 57% for Villarreal
- Celta 4–1 Barcelona Sep 23, 2015 · replay 76% for Celta
- Betis 1–2 Deportivo Sep 24, 2015 · replay 29% for Deportivo