Matchday 5 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 23, 2015
Las Palmas 2–0 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Sevilla 2–0, but the replays call it even: Las Palmas win 3 of 10, Sevilla 5, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 2 | 1.08 |
 Sevilla | 0 | 1.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Las Palmas lucky · −54 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 3, 2 end level, Sevilla win 5.
- 1 LPA 3 SEV 2
- 2 LPA 2 SEV 1
- 3 LPA 3 SEV 0
- 4 LPA 0 SEV 0
- 5 LPA 2 SEV 2
- 6 LPA 1 SEV 4
- 7 LPA 1 SEV 3
- 8 LPA 0 SEV 2
- 9 LPA 2 SEV 3
- 10 LPA 1 SEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 34%, 24% end level, Sevilla win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 5.1% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 9.8% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 19.2% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 21.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 12.6% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 7.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 12 | 2 | 1.08 | +0.92 |
 Sevilla | 16 | 0 | 1.78 | −1.78 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Roque Mesa Quevedo scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 55' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 75' | Antolín Alcáraz Viveros scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% LPA |
| 2 | 28' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% LPA |
| 3 | 29' | Roque Mesa Quevedo scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +21% LPA |
| 4 | 55' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +5% SEV |
| 5 | 67' | Timothée Kolodziejczak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +8% LPA |
| 6 | 70' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LPA |
| 7 | 70' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% LPA |
| 8 | 75' | Antolín Alcáraz Viveros scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 45% · draw 25% · Sevilla 30%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 34% · draw 24% · Sevilla 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 5 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Sevilla
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- Atlético 2–0 Getafe Sep 22, 2015 · replay 74% for Atlético
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