Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Eibar 1–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Eibar and Celta drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Eibar win 5 of 10, Celta 3, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.5 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 1.48 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −14 Eibar about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 5, 2 end level, Celta win 3.
- 1 EIB 1 CEL 0
- 2 EIB 3 CEL 2
- 3 EIB 1 CEL 0
- 4 EIB 2 CEL 0
- 5 EIB 3 CEL 0
- 6 EIB 0 CEL 0
- 7 EIB 1 CEL 1
- 8 EIB 2 CEL 4
- 9 EIB 0 CEL 1
- 10 EIB 1 CEL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 52%, 24% end level, Celta win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 12.6% |
| Eibar by 2 | 16.5% |
| Eibar by 1 | 22.8% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Celta by 1 | 15.0% |
| Celta by 2 | 6.1% |
| Celta by 3+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 11 | 1 | 1.48 | −0.48 |
 Celta | 9 | 1 | 1.29 | −0.29 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 54' | Takashi Inui didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 75' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.66 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +9% EIB |
| 2 | 15' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% EIB |
| 3 | 16' | Pedro Pablo Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% EIB |
| 4 | 18' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EIB |
| 5 | 49' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 6 | 54' | Takashi Inui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +5% CEL |
| 7 | 71' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 8 | 75' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +14% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 40% · draw 30% · Celta 30%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 52% · draw 24% · Celta 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Celta
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Sevilla 3–2 Rayo Sep 26, 2015 · replay 84% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Betis Sep 27, 2015 · replay 47% for Betis