Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid and Málaga drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 9 of 10, Málaga 0, and 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 0 | 3.35 |
 Málaga | 0 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −41 Real Madrid unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 9, 1 ends level, Málaga win 0.
- 1 RMA 3 MAL 2
- 2 RMA 1 MAL 0
- 3 RMA 5 MAL 3
- 4 RMA 3 MAL 1
- 5 RMA 3 MAL 0
- 6 RMA 4 MAL 1
- 7 RMA 4 MAL 0
- 8 RMA 6 MAL 1
- 9 RMA 6 MAL 0
- 10 RMA 2 MAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 86%, 9% end level, Málaga win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 50.8% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 20.1% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 15.4% |
| Draw | 8.8% |
| Málaga by 1 | 3.8% |
| Málaga by 2 | 0.9% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 31 | 0 | 3.35 | −3.35 |
 Málaga | 12 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 64' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 92' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +9% MAL |
| 2 | 44' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% MAL |
| 3 | 49' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% MAL |
| 4 | 58' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% MAL |
| 5 | 64' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +11% MAL |
| 6 | 70' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +8% MAL |
| 7 | 70' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RMA |
| 8 | 92' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +18% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 90% · draw 7% · Málaga 3%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 86% · draw 9% · Málaga 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sevilla 3–2 Rayo Sep 26, 2015 · replay 84% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Betis Sep 27, 2015 · replay 47% for Betis