Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 25, 2015
Valencia 1–0 Granada: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Granada 1–0, and the replays lean Valencia’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Granada, 2 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 1 | 1.36 |
 Granada | 0 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Valencia lucky · −31 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 6, 2 end level, Granada win 2.
- 1 VAL 4 GRA 3
- 2 VAL 2 GRA 1
- 3 VAL 3 GRA 2
- 4 VAL 3 GRA 1
- 5 VAL 4 GRA 1
- 6 VAL 4 GRA 1
- 7 VAL 1 GRA 1
- 8 VAL 1 GRA 1
- 9 VAL 0 GRA 2
- 10 VAL 2 GRA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 57%, 24% end level, Granada win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 13.9% |
| Valencia by 2 | 15.9% |
| Valencia by 1 | 26.9% |
| Draw | 24.0% |
| Granada by 1 | 13.3% |
| Granada by 2 | 4.5% |
| Granada by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 12 | 1 | 1.36 | −0.36 |
 Granada | 18 | 0 | 0.99 | −0.99 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Shkodran Mustafi scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 40' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GRA |
| 2 | 25' | Shkodran Mustafi scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +19% VAL |
| 3 | 28' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% VAL |
| 4 | 40' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +10% VAL |
| 5 | 46' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% GRA |
| 6 | 46' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% VAL |
| 7 | 50' | Matheus Dória Macedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% VAL |
| 8 | 64' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +1% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 45% · draw 27% · Granada 27%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 57% · draw 24% · Granada 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Valencia · Granada
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
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- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
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