Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 27, 2015
Getafe 3–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Levante 3–0, and the replays lean Getafe’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Levante, 3 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Getafe lucky · −30 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 6, 3 end level, Levante win 1.
- 1 GET 1 LEV 0
- 2 GET 2 LEV 1
- 3 GET 1 LEV 0
- 4 GET 2 LEV 0
- 5 GET 2 LEV 0
- 6 GET 3 LEV 0
- 7 GET 0 LEV 0
- 8 GET 1 LEV 1
- 9 GET 0 LEV 0
- 10 GET 0 LEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 56%, 29% end level, Levante win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 11.1% |
| Getafe by 2 | 16.4% |
| Getafe by 1 | 28.3% |
| Draw | 29.1% |
| Levante by 1 | 11.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 2.8% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 15 | 3 | 1.13 | +1.87 |
 Levante | 10 | 0 | 0.50 | −0.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 80' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 90' | Emiliano Buendía scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 91' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | José María Martín-Bejarano Serrano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% GET |
| 2 | 44' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GET |
| 3 | 46' | Juan Antonio Rodríguez Villamuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% LEV |
| 4 | 47' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GET |
| 5 | 55' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LEV |
| 6 | 75' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LEV |
| 7 | 80' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +37% GET |
| 8 | 86' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 83% · draw 13% · Levante 3%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 56% · draw 29% · Levante 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Sevilla 3–2 Rayo Sep 26, 2015 · replay 84% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Betis Sep 27, 2015 · replay 47% for Betis