Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Villarreal 1–0 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Atlético 1–0, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Atlético, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 | 0.67 |
 Atlético Madrid | 0 | 0.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Villarreal lucky · −44 Atlético
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 4, 4 end level, Atlético win 2.
- 1 VIL 1 ATM 0
- 2 VIL 1 ATM 0
- 3 VIL 2 ATM 1
- 4 VIL 2 ATM 0
- 5 VIL 0 ATM 0
- 6 VIL 1 ATM 1
- 7 VIL 0 ATM 0
- 8 VIL 1 ATM 1
- 9 VIL 0 ATM 2
- 10 VIL 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 36%, 40% end level, Atlético win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 2.4% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 9.1% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 24.8% |
| Draw | 40.4% |
| Atlético by 1 | 17.6% |
| Atlético by 2 | 4.6% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 5 | 1 | 0.67 | +0.33 |
 Atlético | 10 | 0 | 0.60 | −0.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão scored from a shot | 0.44 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +13% VIL |
| 2 | 37' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% VIL |
| 3 | 45' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% VIL |
| 4 | 47' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% VIL |
| 5 | 59' | Óliver Torres Muñoz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% VIL |
| 6 | 82' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% VIL |
| 7 | 83' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% VIL |
| 8 | 88' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 35% · draw 40% · Atlético 26%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 36% · draw 40% · Atlético 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Sevilla 3–2 Rayo Sep 26, 2015 · replay 84% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Betis Sep 27, 2015 · replay 47% for Betis