Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 27, 2015
Sporting 1–2 Betis: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Sporting 2–1, but the replays call it even: Betis win 4 of 10, Sporting 4, 2 end level. Sporting made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 1.67 |
 Real Betis | 2 | 1.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Betis lucky · −53 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 4, 2 end level, Betis win 4.
- 1 SPO 3 BET 2
- 2 SPO 3 BET 2
- 3 SPO 3 BET 1
- 4 SPO 3 BET 0
- 5 SPO 1 BET 1
- 6 SPO 0 BET 0
- 7 SPO 0 BET 3
- 8 SPO 0 BET 2
- 9 SPO 1 BET 2
- 10 SPO 1 BET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 41%, 24% end level, Betis win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 8.3% |
| Sporting by 2 | 11.7% |
| Sporting by 1 | 20.7% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Betis by 1 | 18.3% |
| Betis by 2 | 10.3% |
| Betis by 3+ | 6.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 19 | 1 | 1.67 | −0.67 |
 Betis | 13 | 2 | 1.40 | +0.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 45' | Joaquín Sánchez Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 56' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 89' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shot | 0.59 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +14% SPO |
| 2 | 26' | Joaquín Sánchez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% SPO |
| 3 | 45' | Joaquín Sánchez Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +19% BET |
| 4 | 52' | Alejandro Menéndez Díez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% BET |
| 5 | 56' | The game turned hereRubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +33% BET |
| 6 | 64' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +9% BET |
| 7 | 77' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BET |
| 8 | 87' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +14% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 44% · draw 25% · Betis 31%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 41% · draw 24% · Betis 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 6 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Betis
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Sevilla 3–2 Rayo Sep 26, 2015 · replay 84% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws