Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 26, 2015
Sevilla 3–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Rayo 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sevilla win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 3 | 2.09 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Sevilla about even · −16 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 8, 2 end level, Rayo win 0.
- 1 SEV 1 RAY 0
- 2 SEV 1 RAY 0
- 3 SEV 3 RAY 1
- 4 SEV 4 RAY 2
- 5 SEV 2 RAY 0
- 6 SEV 3 RAY 0
- 7 SEV 5 RAY 1
- 8 SEV 5 RAY 0
- 9 SEV 1 RAY 1
- 10 SEV 1 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 76%, 16% end level, Rayo win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 30.7% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 23.4% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 21.8% |
| Draw | 15.9% |
| Rayo by 1 | 5.9% |
| Rayo by 2 | 1.9% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 18 | 3 | 2.09 | +0.91 |
 Rayo | 18 | 2 | 0.66 | +1.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 45' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 50' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia scored from a free kick | 0.02 |
| 54' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 67' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 85' | Yevhen Konoplyanka scored from a free kick | 0.05 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% SEV |
| 2 | 22' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +15% SEV |
| 3 | 27' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +3% RAY |
| 4 | 45' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +8% SEV |
| 5 | 50' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia scored from a free kickFinishing · 2% chance | +11% RAY |
| 6 | 54' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +3% RAY |
| 7 | 67' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +36% RAY |
| 8 | 85' | Yevhen Konoplyanka scored from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +44% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 74% · draw 17% · Rayo 9%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 76% · draw 16% · Rayo 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Betis Sep 27, 2015 · replay 47% for Betis