Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 27, 2015
Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad and Athletic drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 5 of 10, Athletic 2, and 3 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 1.24 |
 Athletic Club | 0 | 0.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −17 Real Sociedad about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 5, 3 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 RSO 1 ATH 0
- 2 RSO 2 ATH 1
- 3 RSO 1 ATH 0
- 4 RSO 2 ATH 0
- 5 RSO 3 ATH 0
- 6 RSO 1 ATH 1
- 7 RSO 2 ATH 2
- 8 RSO 1 ATH 1
- 9 RSO 1 ATH 3
- 10 RSO 1 ATH 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 53%, 28% end level, Athletic win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 8.5% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 16.7% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 27.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
| Athletic by 1 | 14.1% |
| Athletic by 2 | 4.3% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 0 | 1.24 | −1.24 |
 Athletic | 10 | 0 | 0.61 | −0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 86' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Sergio Canales Madrazo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ATH |
| 2 | 39' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RSO |
| 3 | 55' | Sergio Canales Madrazo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ATH |
| 4 | 65' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% RSO |
| 5 | 67' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% RSO |
| 6 | 70' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% RSO |
| 7 | 86' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +29% ATH |
| 8 | 86' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 56% · draw 29% · Athletic 15%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 53% · draw 28% · Athletic 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Sevilla 3–2 Rayo Sep 26, 2015 · replay 84% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol Sep 27, 2015 · replay 90% for Deportivo
- Sporting 1–2 Betis Sep 27, 2015 · replay 47% for Betis