Matchday 6 · La Liga 2015-16 · September 27, 2015
Deportivo 3–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Espanyol 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.5. An own goal helped Deportivo.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 3 | 1.85 |
 Espanyol | 0 | 0.51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Deportivo about even · −10 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 8, 1 ends level, Espanyol win 1.
- 1 DEP 1 ESP 0
- 2 DEP 2 ESP 1
- 3 DEP 2 ESP 0
- 4 DEP 3 ESP 1
- 5 DEP 3 ESP 0
- 6 DEP 3 ESP 0
- 7 DEP 4 ESP 0
- 8 DEP 5 ESP 0
- 9 DEP 0 ESP 0
- 10 DEP 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 84%, 12% end level, Espanyol win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 40.4% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 23.3% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 20.1% |
| Draw | 11.5% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 4.0% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 0.6% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 14 | 2 | 1.85 | +0.15 |
 Espanyol | 7 | 0 | 0.51 | −0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 46' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.96 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% ESP |
| 2 | 13' | Own goal by nan, for DeportivoOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +22% DEP |
| 3 | 17' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ESP |
| 4 | 17' | Fayçal Fajr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% ESP |
| 5 | 19' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% ESP |
| 6 | 22' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% DEP |
| 7 | 26' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +10% DEP |
| 8 | 40' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 94% · draw 5% · Espanyol 1%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 84% · draw 12% · Espanyol 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 6, 2015-16
- Valencia 1–0 Granada Sep 25, 2015 · replay 69% for Valencia
- Villarreal 1–0 Atlético Sep 26, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Eibar 1–1 Celta Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 0–0 Málaga Sep 26, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Sevilla 3–2 Rayo Sep 26, 2015 · replay 84% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–1 Las Palmas Sep 26, 2015 · replay 90% for Barcelona
- Getafe 3–0 Levante Sep 27, 2015 · replay 70% for Getafe
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Sep 27, 2015 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Betis Sep 27, 2015 · replay 47% for Betis