Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 2, 2015
Celta 0–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Celta and Getafe drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Celta win 4 of 10, Getafe 4, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.5 expected goals to 1.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 0 | 1.47 |
 Getafe | 0 | 1.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Celta about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 4, 2 end level, Getafe win 4.
- 1 CEL 2 GET 1
- 2 CEL 1 GET 0
- 3 CEL 2 GET 0
- 4 CEL 3 GET 0
- 5 CEL 2 GET 2
- 6 CEL 1 GET 1
- 7 CEL 0 GET 3
- 8 CEL 1 GET 3
- 9 CEL 2 GET 3
- 10 CEL 1 GET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 37%, 23% end level, Getafe win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 7.7% |
| Celta by 2 | 10.3% |
| Celta by 1 | 19.0% |
| Draw | 22.8% |
| Getafe by 1 | 21.4% |
| Getafe by 2 | 11.7% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 7.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 18 | 0 | 1.47 | −1.47 |
 Getafe | 9 | 0 | 1.52 | −1.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 56' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 82' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% GET |
| 2 | 10' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +8% CEL |
| 3 | 54' | Pedro Pablo Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% GET |
| 4 | 56' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +17% CEL |
| 5 | 62' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +11% CEL |
| 6 | 71' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% CEL |
| 7 | 71' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +8% CEL |
| 8 | 82' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +17% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 35% · draw 27% · Getafe 38%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 37% · draw 23% · Getafe 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad Oct 3, 2015 · replay 71% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar Oct 3, 2015 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona Oct 3, 2015 · replay 24% for Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Levante 1–0 Villarreal Oct 4, 2015 · replay 68% for Levante
- Athletic 3–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Rayo 0–2 Betis Oct 4, 2015 · replay 84% for Betis