Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 4, 2015
Rayo 0–2 Betis: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Rayo 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Betis win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Betis made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0.98 |
 Real Betis | 2 | 1.98 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Betis about even · −16 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 1, 1 ends level, Betis win 8.
- 1 RAY 3 BET 2
- 2 RAY 0 BET 0
- 3 RAY 0 BET 5
- 4 RAY 0 BET 4
- 5 RAY 0 BET 3
- 6 RAY 0 BET 2
- 7 RAY 1 BET 3
- 8 RAY 2 BET 4
- 9 RAY 0 BET 1
- 10 RAY 1 BET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 9%, 14% end level, Betis win 77%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Rayo by 2 | 1.7% |
| Rayo by 1 | 7.0% |
| Draw | 14.1% |
| Betis by 1 | 21.2% |
| Betis by 2 | 21.7% |
| Betis by 3+ | 34.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 23 | 0 | 0.98 | −0.98 |
 Betis | 9 | 2 | 1.98 | +0.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Heiko Westermann scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 60' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 77' | Joaquín Sánchez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shot | 0.85 |
| 90' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Vincenzo Renato Rennella didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RAY |
| 2 | 15' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% BET |
| 3 | 17' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% BET |
| 4 | 19' | Heiko Westermann scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +18% BET |
| 5 | 21' | José Eduardo Rosa Vale de Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BET |
| 6 | 29' | José Eduardo Rosa Vale de Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BET |
| 7 | 45' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BET |
| 8 | 60' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +9% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 5% · draw 10% · Betis 86%
- Final margin
- Betis by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 9% · draw 14% · Betis 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Celta 0–0 Getafe Oct 2, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad Oct 3, 2015 · replay 71% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar Oct 3, 2015 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona Oct 3, 2015 · replay 24% for Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Levante 1–0 Villarreal Oct 4, 2015 · replay 68% for Levante
- Athletic 3–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws