Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Barcelona 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Barcelona win 7 of 10, Sevilla only 2, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 3.4 expected goals to 1.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 Sevilla very lucky · −76 Barcelona
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 2, 1 ends level, Barcelona win 7.
- 1 SEV 1 BAR 0
- 2 SEV 3 BAR 1
- 3 SEV 2 BAR 2
- 4 SEV 0 BAR 5
- 5 SEV 2 BAR 5
- 6 SEV 2 BAR 5
- 7 SEV 1 BAR 3
- 8 SEV 1 BAR 3
- 9 SEV 0 BAR 1
- 10 SEV 1 BAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 17%, 15% end level, Barcelona win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 2.7% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 4.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 9.9% |
| Draw | 14.7% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 20.2% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 19.2% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 28.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 12 | 2 | 1.30 | +0.70 |
 Barcelona | 28 (1 pen) | 1 | 3.41 | −2.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 51' | Michael Krohn-Dehli scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 57' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 73' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 78' | Sandro Ramírez Castillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +4% BAR |
| 2 | 13' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% SEV |
| 3 | 46' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +12% SEV |
| 4 | 51' | Michael Krohn-Dehli scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +20% SEV |
| 5 | 57' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% SEV |
| 6 | 78' | Sandro Ramírez Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +22% SEV |
| 7 | 84' | Sandro Ramírez Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% SEV |
| 8 | 84' | Sergi Roberto Carnicer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 8% · draw 13% · Barcelona 79%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 17% · draw 15% · Barcelona 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 24% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Celta 0–0 Getafe Oct 2, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad Oct 3, 2015 · replay 71% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar Oct 3, 2015 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Levante 1–0 Villarreal Oct 4, 2015 · replay 68% for Levante
- Athletic 3–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Rayo 0–2 Betis Oct 4, 2015 · replay 84% for Betis