Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Real Sociedad 3–1, and the replays lean Málaga’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Real Sociedad, 2 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 3 | 1.57 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 1.19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Málaga lucky · −29 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 6, 2 end level, Real Sociedad win 2.
- 1 MAL 2 RSO 1
- 2 MAL 1 RSO 0
- 3 MAL 2 RSO 0
- 4 MAL 3 RSO 1
- 5 MAL 3 RSO 0
- 6 MAL 5 RSO 1
- 7 MAL 1 RSO 1
- 8 MAL 1 RSO 1
- 9 MAL 0 RSO 2
- 10 MAL 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 61%, 20% end level, Real Sociedad win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 17.9% |
| Málaga by 2 | 18.1% |
| Málaga by 1 | 25.1% |
| Draw | 20.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 12.6% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 4.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 11 | 3 | 1.57 | +1.43 |
 Real Sociedad | 13 | 1 | 1.19 | −0.19 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 6' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 13' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 34' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 88' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.44 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +19% MAL |
| 2 | 6' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +11% MAL |
| 3 | 13' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% RSO |
| 4 | 34' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +6% RSO |
| 5 | 57' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MAL |
| 6 | 76' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% MAL |
| 7 | 81' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% MAL |
| 8 | 82' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 72% · draw 17% · Real Sociedad 11%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 61% · draw 20% · Real Sociedad 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Celta 0–0 Getafe Oct 2, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar Oct 3, 2015 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona Oct 3, 2015 · replay 24% for Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Levante 1–0 Villarreal Oct 4, 2015 · replay 68% for Levante
- Athletic 3–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Rayo 0–2 Betis Oct 4, 2015 · replay 84% for Betis