Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Espanyol 1–2 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Sporting beat Espanyol 2–1, and the replays lean Sporting’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Espanyol, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 1 | 1.60 |
 Sporting Gijón | 2 | 1.48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Sporting lucky · −42 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 3, 2 end level, Sporting win 5.
- 1 ESP 1 SPO 0
- 2 ESP 3 SPO 2
- 3 ESP 4 SPO 1
- 4 ESP 1 SPO 1
- 5 ESP 1 SPO 1
- 6 ESP 1 SPO 5
- 7 ESP 0 SPO 2
- 8 ESP 0 SPO 2
- 9 ESP 1 SPO 2
- 10 ESP 1 SPO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 31%, 22% end level, Sporting win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 5.0% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 9.2% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 16.9% |
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Sporting by 1 | 20.9% |
| Sporting by 2 | 14.8% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 11.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 12 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.60 | −0.60 |
 Sporting | 12 | 2 | 1.48 | +0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Alen Halilović scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 29' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 60' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 60' | Luis Hernández Rodríguez didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 61' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 91' | Alejandro Menéndez Díez scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | The game turned hereAlen Halilović scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +24% SPO |
| 2 | 29' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +22% SPO |
| 3 | 60' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +7% ESP |
| 4 | 60' | Luis Hernández Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +7% ESP |
| 5 | 61' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +26% ESP |
| 6 | 68' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SPO |
| 7 | 71' | Anaitz Arbilla Zabala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SPO |
| 8 | 91' | Alejandro Menéndez Díez scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +45% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 37% · draw 30% · Sporting 34%
- Final margin
- Sporting by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 31% · draw 22% · Sporting 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · Espanyol · Sporting
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
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