Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 4, 2015
Athletic 3–1 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Valencia 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 3 | 1.99 |
 Valencia | 1 | 0.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Athletic about even · −17 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 7, 2 end level, Valencia win 1.
- 1 ATH 1 VAL 0
- 2 ATH 1 VAL 0
- 3 ATH 2 VAL 1
- 4 ATH 2 VAL 0
- 5 ATH 2 VAL 0
- 6 ATH 3 VAL 0
- 7 ATH 4 VAL 0
- 8 ATH 0 VAL 0
- 9 ATH 0 VAL 0
- 10 ATH 1 VAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 73%, 19% end level, Valencia win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 25.4% |
| Athletic by 2 | 22.0% |
| Athletic by 1 | 26.0% |
| Draw | 18.6% |
| Valencia by 1 | 6.3% |
| Valencia by 2 | 1.4% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 16 | 3 | 1.99 | +1.01 |
 Valencia | 10 | 1 | 0.58 | +0.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 33' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 54' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 59' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 68' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VAL |
| 2 | 5' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% VAL |
| 3 | 19' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +27% VAL |
| 4 | 33' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +15% ATH |
| 5 | 46' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% ATH |
| 6 | 54' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +12% VAL |
| 7 | 59' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +26% ATH |
| 8 | 68' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +5% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 90% · draw 8% · Valencia 2%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 73% · draw 19% · Valencia 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Celta 0–0 Getafe Oct 2, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad Oct 3, 2015 · replay 71% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar Oct 3, 2015 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona Oct 3, 2015 · replay 24% for Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Levante 1–0 Villarreal Oct 4, 2015 · replay 68% for Levante
- Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Rayo 0–2 Betis Oct 4, 2015 · replay 84% for Betis