Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 3, 2015
Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Las Palmas 2–0, and the replays lean Eibar’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Las Palmas, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.3 expected goals to 1.4).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 0 | 1.25 |
 Eibar | 2 | 1.38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Eibar lucky · −33 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 2, 2 end level, Eibar win 6.
- 1 LPA 1 EIB 0
- 2 LPA 4 EIB 2
- 3 LPA 1 EIB 1
- 4 LPA 3 EIB 3
- 5 LPA 0 EIB 4
- 6 LPA 0 EIB 3
- 7 LPA 1 EIB 3
- 8 LPA 0 EIB 1
- 9 LPA 1 EIB 2
- 10 LPA 0 EIB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 21%, 24% end level, Eibar win 55%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 5.5% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 13.7% |
| Draw | 23.5% |
| Eibar by 1 | 24.3% |
| Eibar by 2 | 17.5% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 13.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 18 | 0 | 1.25 | −1.25 |
 Eibar | 9 | 2 | 1.38 | +0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Saúl Berjón Pérez scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 61' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 80' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LPA |
| 2 | 6' | Saúl Berjón Pérez scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +10% EIB |
| 3 | 9' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% EIB |
| 4 | 20' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% EIB |
| 5 | 31' | Roque Mesa Quevedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% EIB |
| 6 | 32' | Roque Mesa Quevedo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 7 | 56' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 8 | 61' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +12% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 14% · draw 20% · Eibar 66%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 21% · draw 24% · Eibar 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 7 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Eibar
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Celta 0–0 Getafe Oct 2, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad Oct 3, 2015 · replay 71% for Málaga
- Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona Oct 3, 2015 · replay 24% for Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Levante 1–0 Villarreal Oct 4, 2015 · replay 68% for Levante
- Athletic 3–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Rayo 0–2 Betis Oct 4, 2015 · replay 84% for Betis