Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 4, 2015
Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Atlético and Real Madrid drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Atlético win 8 of 10, Real Madrid 1, and 1 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 2.87 |
 Real Madrid | 1 | 0.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −37 Atlético unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 8, 1 ends level, Real Madrid win 1.
- 1 ATM 1 RMA 0
- 2 ATM 1 RMA 0
- 3 ATM 2 RMA 0
- 4 ATM 2 RMA 0
- 5 ATM 3 RMA 1
- 6 ATM 4 RMA 1
- 7 ATM 5 RMA 1
- 8 ATM 5 RMA 0
- 9 ATM 1 RMA 1
- 10 ATM 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 80%, 14% end level, Real Madrid win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 31.8% |
| Atlético by 2 | 23.6% |
| Atlético by 1 | 24.1% |
| Draw | 14.0% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 5.0% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 1.2% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 18 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.87 | −1.87 |
 Real Madrid | 9 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 21' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 82' | Luciano Vietto scored from a shot | 0.79 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 5% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +20% RMA |
| 2 | 21' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +21% RMA |
| 3 | 49' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% RMA |
| 4 | 80' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RMA |
| 5 | 82' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +12% RMA |
| 6 | 82' | Luciano Vietto scored from a shotFinishing · 79% chance | +9% ATM |
| 7 | 90' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% RMA |
| 8 | 91' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 92% · draw 7% · Real Madrid 2%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 80% · draw 14% · Real Madrid 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Celta 0–0 Getafe Oct 2, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad Oct 3, 2015 · replay 71% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar Oct 3, 2015 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona Oct 3, 2015 · replay 24% for Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Levante 1–0 Villarreal Oct 4, 2015 · replay 68% for Levante
- Athletic 3–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Rayo 0–2 Betis Oct 4, 2015 · replay 84% for Betis