Matchday 7 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 4, 2015
Levante 1–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Villarreal 1–0, and the replays lean Levante’s way: 4 wins in 10, 1 for Villarreal, 5 end level. Levante made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 1 | 0.67 |
 Villarreal | 0 | 0.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Levante lucky · −32 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 4, 5 end level, Villarreal win 1.
- 1 LEV 1 VIL 0
- 2 LEV 1 VIL 0
- 3 LEV 1 VIL 0
- 4 LEV 2 VIL 0
- 5 LEV 0 VIL 0
- 6 LEV 0 VIL 0
- 7 LEV 0 VIL 0
- 8 LEV 0 VIL 0
- 9 LEV 0 VIL 0
- 10 LEV 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 45%, 47% end level, Villarreal win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 3.3% |
| Levante by 2 | 11.3% |
| Levante by 1 | 30.1% |
| Draw | 46.8% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 7.5% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 1.0% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 14 | 1 | 0.67 | +0.33 |
 Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | −0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 82' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.14 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% VIL |
| 2 | 45' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% VIL |
| 3 | 47' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% VIL |
| 4 | 57' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% VIL |
| 5 | 73' | Eric Bertrand Bailly didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% LEV |
| 6 | 74' | José María Martín-Bejarano Serrano didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% VIL |
| 7 | 82' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +38% LEV |
| 8 | 91' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 46% · draw 45% · Villarreal 9%
- Final margin
- Levante by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 45% · draw 47% · Villarreal 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 7, 2015-16
- Celta 0–0 Getafe Oct 2, 2015 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Granada 1–1 Deportivo Oct 3, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Málaga 3–1 Real Sociedad Oct 3, 2015 · replay 71% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 0–2 Eibar Oct 3, 2015 · replay 67% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–1 Barcelona Oct 3, 2015 · replay 24% for Sevilla
- Espanyol 1–2 Sporting Oct 3, 2015 · replay 58% for Sporting
- Athletic 3–1 Valencia Oct 4, 2015 · replay 83% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–1 Real Madrid Oct 4, 2015 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Rayo 0–2 Betis Oct 4, 2015 · replay 84% for Betis