Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 30, 2015
Deportivo 1–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Deportivo and Atlético drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 1 of 10, Atlético 7, and 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.68 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1.37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Deportivo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 1, 2 end level, Atlético win 7.
- 1 DEP 1 ATM 0
- 2 DEP 0 ATM 0
- 3 DEP 0 ATM 0
- 4 DEP 1 ATM 5
- 5 DEP 0 ATM 3
- 6 DEP 0 ATM 2
- 7 DEP 1 ATM 3
- 8 DEP 0 ATM 1
- 9 DEP 0 ATM 1
- 10 DEP 1 ATM 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 13%, 24% end level, Atlético win 63%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 2.7% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 9.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
| Atlético by 1 | 27.4% |
| Atlético by 2 | 19.4% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 16.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 7 | 1 | 0.68 | +0.32 |
 Atlético | 12 | 1 | 1.37 | −0.37 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Tiago Cardoso Mendes scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 38' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 76' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 10% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Jackson Arley Martínez Valencia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% DEP |
| 2 | 33' | Tiago Cardoso Mendes scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +28% ATM |
| 3 | 38' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chanceAntoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +11% DEP |
| 4 | 45' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% DEP |
| 5 | 48' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ATM |
| 6 | 76' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +20% DEP |
| 7 | 79' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% DEP |
| 8 | 84' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 17% · draw 29% · Atlético 54%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 13% · draw 24% · Atlético 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas Oct 31, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 3–0 Levante Oct 31, 2015 · replay 86% for Valencia
- Villarreal 2–1 Sevilla Oct 31, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Getafe 0–2 Barcelona Oct 31, 2015 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta Oct 31, 2015 · replay 43% for Celta
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Betis 1–3 Athletic Nov 1, 2015 · replay 92% for Athletic
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting
- Eibar 1–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2015 · replay 80% for Eibar