Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 1, 2015
Espanyol 1–1 Granada: who deserved to win?
Espanyol and Granada drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 6 of 10, Granada 2, and 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 1 | 1.97 |
 Granada | 1 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −18 Espanyol about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 6, 2 end level, Granada win 2.
- 1 ESP 2 GRA 1
- 2 ESP 1 GRA 0
- 3 ESP 3 GRA 2
- 4 ESP 2 GRA 0
- 5 ESP 3 GRA 1
- 6 ESP 3 GRA 0
- 7 ESP 2 GRA 2
- 8 ESP 1 GRA 1
- 9 ESP 1 GRA 3
- 10 ESP 1 GRA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 56%, 24% end level, Granada win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 13.5% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 16.7% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 26.3% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
| Granada by 1 | 14.0% |
| Granada by 2 | 4.5% |
| Granada by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 9 | 1 | 1.97 | −0.97 |
 Granada | 10 | 1 | 0.75 | +0.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 57' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 81' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shot | 0.69 |
| 93' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.67 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ESP |
| 2 | 57' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +30% GRA |
| 3 | 60' | Papa Kouly Diop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GRA |
| 4 | 74' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +3% ESP |
| 5 | 81' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 69% chance | +31% GRA |
| 6 | 86' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% GRA |
| 7 | 93' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +11% GRA |
| 8 | 93' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chanceFelipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 67% chance | +9% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 71% · draw 20% · Granada 9%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 56% · draw 24% · Granada 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Espanyol · Granada
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