Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Real Sociedad 3–2, but the replays lean toward Real Sociedad: 4 wins in 10 to Celta’s 4, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 1.38 |
 Celta Vigo | 3 | 1.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Celta lucky · −57 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 4, 2 end level, Celta win 4.
- 1 RSO 2 CEL 1
- 2 RSO 1 CEL 0
- 3 RSO 3 CEL 1
- 4 RSO 3 CEL 0
- 5 RSO 1 CEL 1
- 6 RSO 2 CEL 2
- 7 RSO 0 CEL 3
- 8 RSO 0 CEL 2
- 9 RSO 0 CEL 1
- 10 RSO 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 45%, 25% end level, Celta win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 8.6% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 13.1% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 23.0% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Celta by 1 | 18.0% |
| Celta by 2 | 8.8% |
| Celta by 3+ | 4.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 21 | 2 | 1.38 | +0.62 |
 Celta | 16 | 3 | 1.23 | +1.77 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 16' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 36' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 55' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 82' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 88' | Pedro Pablo Hernández scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +21% RSO |
| 2 | 16' | Nemanja Radoja didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chanceIago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +19% CEL |
| 3 | 36' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +21% RSO |
| 4 | 55' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +28% CEL |
| 5 | 58' | Mikel González de Martín Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% CEL |
| 6 | 78' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RSO |
| 7 | 82' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +16% RSO |
| 8 | 88' | The game turned herePedro Pablo Hernández scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +48% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 40% · draw 26% · Celta 34%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 45% · draw 25% · Celta 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 43% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Deportivo 1–1 Atlético Oct 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas Oct 31, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 3–0 Levante Oct 31, 2015 · replay 86% for Valencia
- Villarreal 2–1 Sevilla Oct 31, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Getafe 0–2 Barcelona Oct 31, 2015 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Betis 1–3 Athletic Nov 1, 2015 · replay 92% for Athletic
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting
- Eibar 1–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2015 · replay 80% for Eibar