Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Valencia 3–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Levante 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Valencia win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Valencia about even · −14 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 8, 1 ends level, Levante win 1.
- 1 VAL 3 LEV 2
- 2 VAL 1 LEV 0
- 3 VAL 2 LEV 0
- 4 VAL 2 LEV 0
- 5 VAL 4 LEV 1
- 6 VAL 3 LEV 0
- 7 VAL 4 LEV 0
- 8 VAL 7 LEV 1
- 9 VAL 1 LEV 1
- 10 VAL 1 LEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 80%, 12% end level, Levante win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 39.5% |
| Valencia by 2 | 20.7% |
| Valencia by 1 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 12.2% |
| Levante by 1 | 5.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 1.7% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 14 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.57 | +0.43 |
 Levante | 10 | 0 | 0.84 | −0.84 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 63' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 71' | Sofiane Feghouli scored from a shot | 0.98 |
| 79' | Zakaria Bakkali scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +9% VAL |
| 2 | 17' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% VAL |
| 3 | 27' | Juan Francisco García García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% VAL |
| 4 | 29' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LEV |
| 5 | 42' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LEV |
| 6 | 48' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% VAL |
| 7 | 63' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% VAL |
| 8 | 71' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +2% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 96% · draw 3% · Levante 1%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 80% · draw 12% · Levante 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Deportivo 1–1 Atlético Oct 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas Oct 31, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Villarreal 2–1 Sevilla Oct 31, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Getafe 0–2 Barcelona Oct 31, 2015 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta Oct 31, 2015 · replay 43% for Celta
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Betis 1–3 Athletic Nov 1, 2015 · replay 92% for Athletic
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting
- Eibar 1–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2015 · replay 80% for Eibar