Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 1, 2015
Eibar 1–0 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Rayo 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Eibar win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Eibar.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 1.42 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Eibar about even · −20 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 7, 2 end level, Rayo win 1.
- 1 EIB 1 RAY 0
- 2 EIB 1 RAY 0
- 3 EIB 2 RAY 1
- 4 EIB 2 RAY 0
- 5 EIB 3 RAY 1
- 6 EIB 3 RAY 0
- 7 EIB 4 RAY 0
- 8 EIB 0 RAY 0
- 9 EIB 0 RAY 0
- 10 EIB 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 69%, 22% end level, Rayo win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 18.4% |
| Eibar by 2 | 22.6% |
| Eibar by 1 | 27.9% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| Rayo by 1 | 6.9% |
| Rayo by 2 | 1.6% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 11 | 0 | 1.42 | −1.42 |
 Rayo | 6 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 63' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +7% RAY |
| 2 | 10' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% EIB |
| 3 | 20' | Own goal by nan, for EibarOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +23% EIB |
| 4 | 26' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +2% RAY |
| 5 | 63' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +4% RAY |
| 6 | 66' | Alhassane Bangoura didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% EIB |
| 7 | 81' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EIB |
| 8 | 90' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 63% · draw 27% · Rayo 10%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 69% · draw 22% · Rayo 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Rayo
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Deportivo 1–1 Atlético Oct 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas Oct 31, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 3–0 Levante Oct 31, 2015 · replay 86% for Valencia
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- Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta Oct 31, 2015 · replay 43% for Celta
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Betis 1–3 Athletic Nov 1, 2015 · replay 92% for Athletic
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting