Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Villarreal 2–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Sevilla 2–1, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Sevilla, 3 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.21 |
 Sevilla | 1 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Villarreal lucky · −28 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 6, 3 end level, Sevilla win 1.
- 1 VIL 1 SEV 0
- 2 VIL 1 SEV 0
- 3 VIL 1 SEV 0
- 4 VIL 3 SEV 1
- 5 VIL 2 SEV 0
- 6 VIL 3 SEV 0
- 7 VIL 3 SEV 3
- 8 VIL 1 SEV 1
- 9 VIL 2 SEV 2
- 10 VIL 0 SEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 58%, 27% end level, Sevilla win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 12.7% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 17.1% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 28.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 11.0% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 3.0% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 12 | 2 | 1.21 | +0.79 |
 Sevilla | 6 | 1 | 0.67 | +0.33 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 60' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.65 |
| 75' | Fernando Llorente Torres scored from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Eric Bertrand Bailly didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SEV |
| 2 | 10' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% VIL |
| 3 | 22' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SEV |
| 4 | 24' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +22% VIL |
| 5 | 60' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 65% chance | +4% VIL |
| 6 | 75' | Fernando Llorente Torres scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +4% SEV |
| 7 | 78' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% VIL |
| 8 | 93' | Fernando Llorente Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 51% · draw 32% · Sevilla 17%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 58% · draw 27% · Sevilla 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Deportivo 1–1 Atlético Oct 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas Oct 31, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 3–0 Levante Oct 31, 2015 · replay 86% for Valencia
- Getafe 0–2 Barcelona Oct 31, 2015 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta Oct 31, 2015 · replay 43% for Celta
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Betis 1–3 Athletic Nov 1, 2015 · replay 92% for Athletic
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting
- Eibar 1–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2015 · replay 80% for Eibar