Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Getafe 0–2 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Getafe 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Barcelona about even · −9 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 0, 1 ends level, Barcelona win 9.
- 1 GET 0 BAR 0
- 2 GET 0 BAR 5
- 3 GET 1 BAR 5
- 4 GET 0 BAR 3
- 5 GET 0 BAR 3
- 6 GET 0 BAR 2
- 7 GET 0 BAR 2
- 8 GET 0 BAR 2
- 9 GET 0 BAR 1
- 10 GET 0 BAR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 3%, 13% end level, Barcelona win 84%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Getafe by 2 | 0.3% |
| Getafe by 1 | 2.8% |
| Draw | 12.9% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 22.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 24.2% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 37.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 6 | 0 | 0.24 | −0.24 |
 Barcelona | 15 | 2 | 1.98 | +0.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 36' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 57' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 74' | Jordi Alba Ramos didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +14% GET |
| 2 | 11' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BAR |
| 3 | 13' | Ivan Rakitić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% GET |
| 4 | 14' | Sergi Roberto Carnicer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% GET |
| 5 | 27' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BAR |
| 6 | 36' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +16% BAR |
| 7 | 53' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BAR |
| 8 | 57' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +12% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 0% · draw 3% · Barcelona 97%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 3% · draw 13% · Barcelona 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Deportivo 1–1 Atlético Oct 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas Oct 31, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 3–0 Levante Oct 31, 2015 · replay 86% for Valencia
- Villarreal 2–1 Sevilla Oct 31, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta Oct 31, 2015 · replay 43% for Celta
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Betis 1–3 Athletic Nov 1, 2015 · replay 92% for Athletic
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting
- Eibar 1–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2015 · replay 80% for Eibar