Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 1, 2015
Betis 1–3 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Betis 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.30 |
 Athletic Club | 3 | 3.14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Athletic about even · −8 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 0, 1 ends level, Athletic win 9.
- 1 BET 3 ATH 3
- 2 BET 1 ATH 8
- 3 BET 0 ATH 6
- 4 BET 0 ATH 5
- 5 BET 1 ATH 5
- 6 BET 0 ATH 3
- 7 BET 2 ATH 5
- 8 BET 1 ATH 3
- 9 BET 1 ATH 3
- 10 BET 2 ATH 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 4%, 8% end level, Athletic win 88%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.8% |
| Betis by 1 | 2.9% |
| Draw | 7.9% |
| Athletic by 1 | 12.1% |
| Athletic by 2 | 17.4% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 58.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 11 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.30 | −0.30 |
 Athletic | 23 | 3 | 3.14 | −0.14 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 44' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 53' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shot | 0.41 |
| 55' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shot | 0.57 |
| 66' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 73' | Aymeric Laporte didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 86' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% BET |
| 2 | 7' | The game turned hereIñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +24% ATH |
| 3 | 27' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +5% BET |
| 4 | 44' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +10% ATH |
| 5 | 66' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% BET |
| 6 | 70' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATH |
| 7 | 73' | Aymeric Laporte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +5% BET |
| 8 | 86' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 3% · draw 6% · Athletic 92%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 4% · draw 8% · Athletic 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Deportivo 1–1 Atlético Oct 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas Oct 31, 2015 · replay 93% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 3–0 Levante Oct 31, 2015 · replay 86% for Valencia
- Villarreal 2–1 Sevilla Oct 31, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Getafe 0–2 Barcelona Oct 31, 2015 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta Oct 31, 2015 · replay 43% for Celta
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting
- Eibar 1–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2015 · replay 80% for Eibar