Matchday 10 · La Liga 2015-16 · October 31, 2015
Real Madrid 3–1 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Las Palmas 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 3 | 2.51 |
 Las Palmas | 1 | 0.92 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Real Madrid about even · −7 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 9, 1 ends level, Las Palmas win 0.
- 1 RMA 3 LPA 2
- 2 RMA 1 LPA 0
- 3 RMA 2 LPA 0
- 4 RMA 3 LPA 0
- 5 RMA 4 LPA 1
- 6 RMA 4 LPA 0
- 7 RMA 5 LPA 1
- 8 RMA 5 LPA 0
- 9 RMA 7 LPA 0
- 10 RMA 2 LPA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 89%, 8% end level, Las Palmas win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 54.4% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.3% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 14.9% |
| Draw | 8.0% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 2.5% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.7% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 17 | 3 | 2.51 | +0.49 |
 Las Palmas | 8 | 1 | 0.92 | +0.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 13' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 18' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 37' | Hernán Daniel Santana Trujillo scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 42' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 91' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +13% RMA |
| 2 | 12' | Luka Modrić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% LPA |
| 3 | 13' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +11% RMA |
| 4 | 18' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +7% RMA |
| 5 | 26' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +1% LPA |
| 6 | 33' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +1% LPA |
| 7 | 37' | Hernán Daniel Santana Trujillo scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +11% LPA |
| 8 | 42' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +10% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 91% · draw 7% · Las Palmas 2%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 89% · draw 8% · Las Palmas 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 10 matches, 2015-16 · Real Madrid · Las Palmas
More from matchday 10, 2015-16
- Deportivo 1–1 Atlético Oct 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Valencia 3–0 Levante Oct 31, 2015 · replay 86% for Valencia
- Villarreal 2–1 Sevilla Oct 31, 2015 · replay 72% for Villarreal
- Getafe 0–2 Barcelona Oct 31, 2015 · replay 91% for Barcelona
- Real Sociedad 2–3 Celta Oct 31, 2015 · replay 43% for Celta
- Espanyol 1–1 Granada Nov 1, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Betis 1–3 Athletic Nov 1, 2015 · replay 92% for Athletic
- Sporting 1–0 Málaga Nov 1, 2015 · replay 70% for Sporting
- Eibar 1–0 Rayo Nov 1, 2015 · replay 80% for Eibar