Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Betis 1–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Betis and Celta drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Betis win 8 of 10, Celta 0, and 2 end level. Betis made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 2.46 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −34 Betis unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 8, 2 end level, Celta win 0.
- 1 BET 1 CEL 0
- 2 BET 1 CEL 0
- 3 BET 2 CEL 1
- 4 BET 2 CEL 0
- 5 BET 2 CEL 0
- 6 BET 3 CEL 0
- 7 BET 3 CEL 0
- 8 BET 5 CEL 0
- 9 BET 1 CEL 1
- 10 BET 0 CEL 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 76%, 16% end level, Celta win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 29.3% |
| Betis by 2 | 22.9% |
| Betis by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 16.5% |
| Celta by 1 | 6.0% |
| Celta by 2 | 1.6% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 28 | 1 | 2.46 | −1.46 |
 Celta | 5 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 81' | Jorge Molina Vidal scored from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 6% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% CEL |
| 2 | 24' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +19% CEL |
| 3 | 51' | Bruno González Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% CEL |
| 4 | 74' | Heiko Westermann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% CEL |
| 5 | 75' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% CEL |
| 6 | 81' | Jorge Molina Vidal scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +22% BET |
| 7 | 91' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% CEL |
| 8 | 93' | Joaquín Sánchez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +12% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 83% · draw 12% · Celta 5%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 76% · draw 16% · Celta 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas Dec 6, 2015 · replay 94% for Sporting
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar Dec 6, 2015 · replay 79% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 0–0 Málaga Dec 6, 2015 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Villarreal 2–1 Rayo Dec 6, 2015 · replay 81% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 1–1 Levante Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws