Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 6, 2015
Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Sporting beat Las Palmas 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sporting win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Sporting made the better chances: 3.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 3 | 3.01 |
 Las Palmas | 1 | 0.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Sporting about even · −6 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 9, 1 ends level, Las Palmas win 0.
- 1 SPO 2 LPA 1
- 2 SPO 2 LPA 1
- 3 SPO 2 LPA 0
- 4 SPO 2 LPA 0
- 5 SPO 3 LPA 0
- 6 SPO 4 LPA 0
- 7 SPO 5 LPA 1
- 8 SPO 6 LPA 1
- 9 SPO 6 LPA 0
- 10 SPO 1 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 90%, 7% end level, Las Palmas win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 54.9% |
| Sporting by 2 | 20.3% |
| Sporting by 1 | 15.0% |
| Draw | 7.1% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 2.2% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.5% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 22 | 3 | 3.01 | −0.01 |
 Las Palmas | 12 | 1 | 0.54 | +0.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot | 0.71 |
| 37' | Nabil El Zhar scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 77' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 83' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot | 0.54 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Daniel Arnaud N''Di didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LPA |
| 2 | 16' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +7% SPO |
| 3 | 28' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +3% LPA |
| 4 | 37' | Nabil El Zhar scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +23% LPA |
| 5 | 65' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% LPA |
| 6 | 66' | Jorge Meré Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% LPA |
| 7 | 68' | Ignacio Cases Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LPA |
| 8 | 77' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +34% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 97% · draw 2% · Las Palmas 1%
- Final margin
- Sporting by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 90% · draw 7% · Las Palmas 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Las Palmas
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar Dec 6, 2015 · replay 79% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 0–0 Málaga Dec 6, 2015 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Villarreal 2–1 Rayo Dec 6, 2015 · replay 81% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 1–1 Levante Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws