Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 6, 2015
Villarreal 2–1 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Rayo 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.54 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0.21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Villarreal about even · −19 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 7, 2 end level, Rayo win 1.
- 1 VIL 1 RAY 0
- 2 VIL 1 RAY 0
- 3 VIL 1 RAY 0
- 4 VIL 2 RAY 0
- 5 VIL 2 RAY 0
- 6 VIL 3 RAY 0
- 7 VIL 3 RAY 0
- 8 VIL 0 RAY 0
- 9 VIL 0 RAY 0
- 10 VIL 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 68%, 25% end level, Rayo win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 16.2% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 21.7% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 30.1% |
| Draw | 25.0% |
| Rayo by 1 | 6.1% |
| Rayo by 2 | 0.8% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 14 | 2 | 1.54 | +0.46 |
 Rayo | 8 | 1 | 0.21 | +0.79 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 68' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 85' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Jonathan dos Santos Ramírez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% RAY |
| 2 | 3' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% RAY |
| 3 | 27' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% RAY |
| 4 | 40' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +30% RAY |
| 5 | 43' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RAY |
| 6 | 66' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% RAY |
| 7 | 68' | The game turned hereCédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +21% VIL |
| 8 | 85' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +26% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 76% · draw 20% · Rayo 4%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 68% · draw 25% · Rayo 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas Dec 6, 2015 · replay 94% for Sporting
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar Dec 6, 2015 · replay 79% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 0–0 Málaga Dec 6, 2015 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Espanyol 1–1 Levante Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws