Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Deportivo and Sevilla drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 3 of 10, Sevilla 4, and 3 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.78 |
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Deportivo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 3, 3 end level, Sevilla win 4.
- 1 DEP 1 SEV 0
- 2 DEP 1 SEV 0
- 3 DEP 3 SEV 1
- 4 DEP 0 SEV 0
- 5 DEP 2 SEV 2
- 6 DEP 0 SEV 0
- 7 DEP 1 SEV 4
- 8 DEP 0 SEV 2
- 9 DEP 1 SEV 2
- 10 DEP 0 SEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 30%, 32% end level, Sevilla win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 2.7% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 8.2% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 19.6% |
| Draw | 32.2% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 22.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 10.3% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 8 | 1 | 0.78 | +0.22 |
 Sevilla | 9 | 1 | 1.13 | −0.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 21' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a free kick | 0.04 |
| 75' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +12% SEV |
| 2 | 21' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +23% DEP |
| 3 | 30' | Yevhen Konoplyanka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% DEP |
| 4 | 34' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% DEP |
| 5 | 61' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% DEP |
| 6 | 64' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% DEP |
| 7 | 75' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +22% SEV |
| 8 | 85' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 22% · draw 33% · Sevilla 45%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 30% · draw 32% · Sevilla 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas Dec 6, 2015 · replay 94% for Sporting
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar Dec 6, 2015 · replay 79% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 0–0 Málaga Dec 6, 2015 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Villarreal 2–1 Rayo Dec 6, 2015 · replay 81% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 1–1 Levante Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws