Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 6, 2015
Athletic 0–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Athletic and Málaga drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Athletic win 3 of 10, Málaga 3, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 0 | 0.65 |
 Málaga | 0 | 0.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −2 Athletic about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 3, 4 end level, Málaga win 3.
- 1 ATH 1 MAL 0
- 2 ATH 1 MAL 0
- 3 ATH 2 MAL 0
- 4 ATH 0 MAL 0
- 5 ATH 0 MAL 0
- 6 ATH 0 MAL 0
- 7 ATH 1 MAL 1
- 8 ATH 0 MAL 2
- 9 ATH 1 MAL 2
- 10 ATH 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 32%, 40% end level, Málaga win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Athletic by 2 | 7.3% |
| Athletic by 1 | 22.9% |
| Draw | 39.9% |
| Málaga by 1 | 20.2% |
| Málaga by 2 | 6.3% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 11 | 0 | 0.65 | −0.65 |
 Málaga | 7 | 0 | 0.56 | −0.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% MAL |
| 2 | 9' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATH |
| 3 | 17' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% MAL |
| 4 | 27' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +7% MAL |
| 5 | 35' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ATH |
| 6 | 41' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +9% ATH |
| 7 | 63' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATH |
| 8 | 79' | Carlos Gurpegi Nausia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 31% · draw 41% · Málaga 28%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 32% · draw 40% · Málaga 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas Dec 6, 2015 · replay 94% for Sporting
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar Dec 6, 2015 · replay 79% for Real Sociedad
- Villarreal 2–1 Rayo Dec 6, 2015 · replay 81% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 1–1 Levante Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws