Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 6, 2015
Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Eibar 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 2.11 |
 Eibar | 1 | 0.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Real Sociedad about even · −21 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 7, 2 end level, Eibar win 1.
- 1 RSO 2 EIB 1
- 2 RSO 2 EIB 1
- 3 RSO 1 EIB 0
- 4 RSO 3 EIB 1
- 5 RSO 2 EIB 0
- 6 RSO 3 EIB 0
- 7 RSO 5 EIB 1
- 8 RSO 2 EIB 2
- 9 RSO 2 EIB 2
- 10 RSO 1 EIB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 70%, 18% end level, Eibar win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 23.7% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 20.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 25.1% |
| Draw | 18.4% |
| Eibar by 1 | 8.9% |
| Eibar by 2 | 2.4% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 10 | 2 | 2.11 | −0.11 |
 Eibar | 6 | 1 | 0.69 | +0.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 9' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 53' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shot | 0.63 |
| 89' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.89 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +15% EIB |
| 2 | 9' | The game turned hereImanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +23% RSO |
| 3 | 43' | Aleksandar Pantić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% RSO |
| 4 | 53' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +20% EIB |
| 5 | 86' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% EIB |
| 6 | 88' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EIB |
| 7 | 88' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EIB |
| 8 | 89' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 89% chance | +5% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 80% · draw 16% · Eibar 5%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 70% · draw 18% · Eibar 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas Dec 6, 2015 · replay 94% for Sporting
- Athletic 0–0 Málaga Dec 6, 2015 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Villarreal 2–1 Rayo Dec 6, 2015 · replay 81% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 1–1 Levante Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws