Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Valencia 1–1 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Valencia and Barcelona drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Valencia win 1 of 10, Barcelona 6, and 3 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Valencia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 1, 3 end level, Barcelona win 6.
- 1 VAL 1 BAR 0
- 2 VAL 0 BAR 0
- 3 VAL 0 BAR 0
- 4 VAL 0 BAR 0
- 5 VAL 0 BAR 3
- 6 VAL 0 BAR 2
- 7 VAL 0 BAR 2
- 8 VAL 0 BAR 1
- 9 VAL 0 BAR 1
- 10 VAL 0 BAR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 13%, 26% end level, Barcelona win 61%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Valencia by 2 | 2.2% |
| Valencia by 1 | 10.3% |
| Draw | 26.3% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 29.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 19.1% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 10 | 1 | 0.48 | +0.52 |
 Barcelona | 16 | 1 | 1.33 | −0.33 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 58' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 85' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% VAL |
| 2 | 5' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% VAL |
| 3 | 25' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% VAL |
| 4 | 33' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% VAL |
| 5 | 58' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +33% BAR |
| 6 | 78' | Rodrigo Javier De Paul didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BAR |
| 7 | 85' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +42% VAL |
| 8 | 90' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 13% · draw 28% · Barcelona 59%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 13% · draw 26% · Barcelona 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas Dec 6, 2015 · replay 94% for Sporting
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar Dec 6, 2015 · replay 79% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 0–0 Málaga Dec 6, 2015 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Villarreal 2–1 Rayo Dec 6, 2015 · replay 81% for Villarreal
- Espanyol 1–1 Levante Dec 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 31% draws