Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 7, 2015
Espanyol 1–1 Levante: who deserved to win?
Espanyol and Levante drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 3 of 10, Levante 4, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.9 expected goals to 1.0).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Espanyol about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 3, 3 end level, Levante win 4.
- 1 ESP 1 LEV 0
- 2 ESP 1 LEV 0
- 3 ESP 3 LEV 1
- 4 ESP 1 LEV 1
- 5 ESP 1 LEV 1
- 6 ESP 1 LEV 1
- 7 ESP 0 LEV 3
- 8 ESP 0 LEV 1
- 9 ESP 1 LEV 2
- 10 ESP 1 LEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 29%, 31% end level, Levante win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 2.5% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 7.0% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 31.3% |
| Levante by 1 | 23.2% |
| Levante by 2 | 11.7% |
| Levante by 3+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 9 | 1 | 0.94 | +0.06 |
 Levante | 12 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 9' | Víctor Guillermo Álvarez Delgado didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 55' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +14% LEV |
| 2 | 9' | Víctor Guillermo Álvarez Delgado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +9% LEV |
| 3 | 46' | Víctor Sánchez Mata didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% LEV |
| 4 | 55' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +27% ESP |
| 5 | 62' | Víctor Sánchez Mata didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LEV |
| 6 | 73' | Jordi Xumetra Feliu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ESP |
| 7 | 75' | Víctor Casadesús Castaño didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% ESP |
| 8 | 86' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 33% · draw 31% · Levante 36%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 29% · draw 31% · Levante 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Granada 0–2 Atlético Dec 5, 2015 · replay 72% for Atlético
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Sporting 3–1 Las Palmas Dec 6, 2015 · replay 94% for Sporting
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Eibar Dec 6, 2015 · replay 79% for Real Sociedad
- Athletic 0–0 Málaga Dec 6, 2015 · drawn; replay 40% draws
- Villarreal 2–1 Rayo Dec 6, 2015 · replay 81% for Villarreal