Matchday 14 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 5, 2015
Granada 0–2 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Granada 2–0, and the replays lean Atlético’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Granada, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 0 | 0.88 |
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1.35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Atlético lucky · −28 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 2, 2 end level, Atlético win 6.
- 1 GRA 2 ATM 1
- 2 GRA 2 ATM 0
- 3 GRA 0 ATM 0
- 4 GRA 1 ATM 1
- 5 GRA 0 ATM 4
- 6 GRA 0 ATM 3
- 7 GRA 1 ATM 3
- 8 GRA 1 ATM 2
- 9 GRA 0 ATM 1
- 10 GRA 1 ATM 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 17%, 23% end level, Atlético win 61%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Granada by 2 | 3.8% |
| Granada by 1 | 12.3% |
| Draw | 22.7% |
| Atlético by 1 | 26.3% |
| Atlético by 2 | 18.8% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 15.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 18 | 0 | 0.88 | −0.88 |
 Atlético | 13 | 2 | 1.35 | +0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 75' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | The game turned hereDiego Roberto Godín Leal scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +21% ATM |
| 2 | 40' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% ATM |
| 3 | 43' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 4 | 64' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% GRA |
| 5 | 65' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ATM |
| 6 | 67' | Robert Ibáñez Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% ATM |
| 7 | 73' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATM |
| 8 | 75' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +8% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 9% · draw 17% · Atlético 74%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 17% · draw 23% · Atlético 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 14 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Atlético
More from matchday 14, 2015-16
- Real Madrid 4–1 Getafe Dec 5, 2015 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 1–1 Sevilla Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Betis 1–1 Celta Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Valencia 1–1 Barcelona Dec 5, 2015 · drawn; replay 26% draws
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