Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Celta 1–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Espanyol 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 7 of 10, 3 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.19 |
 Espanyol | 0 | 0.22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Celta about even · −20 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 7, 3 end level, Espanyol win 0.
- 1 CEL 1 ESP 0
- 2 CEL 1 ESP 0
- 3 CEL 1 ESP 0
- 4 CEL 3 ESP 1
- 5 CEL 2 ESP 0
- 6 CEL 3 ESP 0
- 7 CEL 3 ESP 0
- 8 CEL 0 ESP 0
- 9 CEL 0 ESP 0
- 10 CEL 1 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 67%, 26% end level, Espanyol win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 13.7% |
| Celta by 2 | 23.0% |
| Celta by 1 | 30.4% |
| Draw | 26.0% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 6.3% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 0.6% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 15 | 1 | 1.19 | −0.19 |
 Espanyol | 6 | 0 | 0.22 | −0.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 41' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% ESP |
| 2 | 41' | Iago Aspas Juncal scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +25% CEL |
| 3 | 50' | Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 52' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% ESP |
| 5 | 60' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% ESP |
| 6 | 62' | Jorge Franco Alviz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 7 | 83' | Antonio José Raillo Arenas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CEL |
| 8 | 91' | Antonio José Raillo Arenas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +2% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 64% · draw 29% · Espanyol 7%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 67% · draw 26% · Espanyol 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal