Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 13, 2015
Rayo 1–2 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Rayo 2–1, but the replays call it even: Málaga win 3 of 10, Rayo 4, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1.01 |
 Málaga | 2 | 1.05 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Málaga lucky · −51 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 4, 3 end level, Málaga win 3.
- 1 RAY 1 MAL 0
- 2 RAY 3 MAL 2
- 3 RAY 2 MAL 0
- 4 RAY 3 MAL 0
- 5 RAY 1 MAL 1
- 6 RAY 0 MAL 0
- 7 RAY 0 MAL 0
- 8 RAY 0 MAL 2
- 9 RAY 1 MAL 2
- 10 RAY 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 36%, 29% end level, Málaga win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 5.3% |
| Rayo by 2 | 10.5% |
| Rayo by 1 | 20.5% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Málaga by 1 | 20.6% |
| Málaga by 2 | 9.4% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 13 | 1 | 1.01 | −0.01 |
 Málaga | 15 | 2 | 1.05 | +0.95 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 58' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 86' | Duje Čop scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +21% RAY |
| 2 | 17' | Raúl Albentosa Redal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% RAY |
| 3 | 58' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +31% MAL |
| 4 | 67' | Alhassane Bangoura didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MAL |
| 5 | 74' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% MAL |
| 6 | 76' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% RAY |
| 7 | 86' | The game turned hereDuje Čop scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +42% MAL |
| 8 | 93' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 31% · draw 30% · Málaga 39%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 36% · draw 29% · Málaga 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal